For the exec and the delivery team: what the programme is worth, where every journey stands, and where the detail lives.
Drive and de-risk the first win, then chase where the money sits: win to second transaction, loss recovery, and pre-departure. Four programmes, one review pack per journey.
Working draft · conditionally approved on direction · nothing ships without sign-off
What the programme is worth
The prize
~£1.3M
reactivation and lapse-prevention, plus a first-win habit engine sized ~£235k growing to ~£0.9M.
Why the base needs it
Growth is yield-led at ~£25 an upgrade and hitting a ceiling: 2.4% of the base transacting, down from 3.0%; ~600k gone quiet; first-time buyers down 8%.
The north star
Transacting-user rate, then average revenue per user, then revenue. Every journey below ladders to it.
Figures: the Q3 plan and the 8 Jul 2026 Analytics sizing; unconfirmed items carry TBC with their owner where they appear.
Where the programme is
✓ Discovery→✓ Strategy and planning→Design the journeys→Build→Live and measured
The full phase narrative: any pack’s Reference tab.
The four programmes, and where every journey is
ACTIVATETurn intent into a first transaction, and keep live bidders in the game.
PROPOSED · SCOPE RULING OPENTrip state: disruption and refundswould be an eleventh journey; whether it is in scope, and whose it is, is an open ruling. Sizing follows the ruling.
*Assumes £25 a customer, to be validated. Audiences: Analytics sizing, 8 Jul 2026; TBC rows carry their owner. Stage positions: the delivery record, 22 Aug 2026. What each journey is measured on: Measurement & Test and Learn.
Where this goes: foundational to AI 1:1, leapfrogging the middle
TODAY
Stage 1: Foundational
“You don't know me”
One and done, channel-siloed, generic. Some triggered sends live, but no journey architecture and no test framework.
Upgrade CVR 29.7% baseline; open ~40%; opt-in 27%
Q3 · IN PROGRESS
Stage 2: Segmented
“You know I'm new”
Right stage, multi-channel, cohort targeting. Lifecycle journeys: onboarding, activation, lapse re-engagement. Rules-based, shippable in Braze now.
+3pp to 32.7% CVR; +£123K a year
LEAPFROGGED
Stage 3: Behavioural
“You understand my journey”
Right context: cross-channel real-time triggers, personalised by route and savings.
(+6pp to 35.7%)
LEAPFROGGED
Stage 4: Predictive
“You're one step ahead”
Right moment: model-driven, propensity-scored activation, churn prediction, dynamic incentives.
(+10pp to 39.7%)
Q4 2026
Stage 5: AI 1:1
“My personal travel agent”
Next-best-action: AI-orchestrated omnichannel, self-optimising journeys, real-time channel selection per customer.
+15pp to 44.7% CVR; ~£1M a year at maturity
The behavioural and predictive stages are not skipped: their capabilities are absorbed into the Q4 decisioning engine. Every Q3 journey ships with a holdout and pre-registered metric so the score-driven versions have a baseline to beat. CVR ladder: the Q3 board pack; stage framing after McKinsey and BCG personalisation research.